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Hawks vs Nets prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 17

Wed, Feb 17 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES)

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

117-110

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

72% win ATLwin BKN 28%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin7.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Wednesday, February 17 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 72% chance to win and projects a 117-110 score (Hawks – Nets), about 227 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Nets L4, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hawks, but the Nets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nets 110 – 117 Hawks, a margin of about 7.2 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / ATL +2.7 per game

-11.1

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHawks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Nets

-7.2

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Hawks win by 10+

41%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLBKN

119.0

Points scored / game

108.0

115.8

Points allowed / game

117.9

46.9 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

34.8 %

3-point %

36.7 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

72.8 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

43.5

32.2

Assists / game

24.0

10.2

Steals / game

10.0

3.6

Blocks / game

4.0

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 72% · BKN 28%

ESPN BPI

ATL 72% · BKN 28%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		BKN
2-3	Record	0-4
119.0	Points scored / game	108.0
115.8	Points allowed / game	117.9
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
L3	Current streak	L4
2-3	Last 10 games	0-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.