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Suns vs 76ers prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 17

Wed, Feb 17 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

111-113

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

44% win PHXwin PHI 56%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin1.8

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Wednesday, February 17 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 56% chance to win and projects a 111-113 score (Suns – 76ers), about 225 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: 76ers W1, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects 76ers 113 – 111 Suns, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / PHX -1.4 per game

+2.2

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor 76ers

+1.8

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Suns win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXPHI

111.9

Points scored / game

114.4

113.6

Points allowed / game

113.5

45.6 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

31.9 %

3-point %

32.6 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

73.9 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

42.2

25.3

Assists / game

24.6

8.7

Steals / game

9.8

5.3

Blocks / game

5.6

14.0

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 44% · PHI 56%

ESPN BPI

PHX 29% · PHI 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		PHI
1-2	Record	4-1
111.9	Points scored / game	114.4
113.6	Points allowed / game	113.5
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
L1	Current streak	W1
1-2	Last 10 games	4-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.