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76ers vs Suns prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 30

Wed, Dec 30 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

109-114

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

36% win PHIwin PHX 64%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin4.4

Projected total223

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Wednesday, December 30 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 64% chance to win and projects a 109-114 score (76ers – Suns), about 223 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Suns L1, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the 76ers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Suns, but the 76ers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Suns 114 – 109 76ers, a margin of about 4.4 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / PHI +0.7 per game

-2.2

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

Back-to-back76ers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Suns

+4.4

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

76ers win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIPHX

114.4

Points scored / game

111.9

113.5

Points allowed / game

113.6

42.8 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

32.6 %

3-point %

31.9 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

77.5 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

39.7

24.6

Assists / game

25.3

9.8

Steals / game

8.7

5.6

Blocks / game

5.3

12.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 36% · PHX 64%

ESPN BPI

PHI 61% · PHX 39%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

PHI		PHX
4-1	Record	1-2
114.4	Points scored / game	111.9
113.5	Points allowed / game	113.6
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W1	Current streak	L1
4-1	Last 10 games	1-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.