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Mavericks vs Magic prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 17

Wed, Feb 17 · 7:00 PM ETKia Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

113-115

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

44% win DALwin ORL 56%

FavoriteORL

Projected margin1.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Wednesday, February 17 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Magic a 56% chance to win and projects a 113-115 score (Mavericks – Magic), about 227 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Magic L1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic) and Paolo Banchero (Magic)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Magic 115 – 113 Mavericks, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Magic and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / DAL -2.8 per game

+0.6

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 3 out, 2 questionable

-1.1

Expected marginfor Magic

+1.8

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Mavericks win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

DALORL

114.1

Points scored / game

113.6

117.4

Points allowed / game

116.2

49.0 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

34.6 %

3-point %

31.4 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

76.7 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

41.3

27.6

Assists / game

26.0

9.0

Steals / game

7.8

7.4

Blocks / game

4.5

15.6

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 44% · ORL 56%

ESPN BPI

DAL 47% · ORL 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		ORL
3-2	Record	1-3
114.1	Points scored / game	113.6
117.4	Points allowed / game	116.2
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
W2	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.