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Magic vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 2

Wed, Dec 2 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

112-115

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

43% win ORLwin DAL 57%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin2.3

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Wednesday, December 2 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 57% chance to win and projects a 112-115 score (Magic – Mavericks), about 227 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Mavericks 115 – 112 Magic, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / ORL -2.3 per game

-0.6

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Mavericks

+2.3

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Magic win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLDAL

113.6

Points scored / game

114.1

116.2

Points allowed / game

117.4

44.2 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

31.4 %

3-point %

34.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

75.0 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

44.2

26.0

Assists / game

27.6

7.8

Steals / game

9.0

4.5

Blocks / game

7.4

17.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 43% · DAL 57%

ESPN BPI

ORL 45% · DAL 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		DAL
1-3	Record	3-2
113.6	Points scored / game	114.1
116.2	Points allowed / game	117.4
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L1	Current streak	W2
1-3	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.