Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Pistons vs Jazz prediction NBA · Monday, February 15

Mon, Feb 15 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

122-109

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

85% win DETwin UTAH 15%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin13.0

Projected total230

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Monday, February 15 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 85% chance to win and projects a 122-109 score (Pistons – Jazz), about 230 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Jazz L3, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Jazz 109 – 122 Pistons, a margin of about 13.0 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / DET +6.5 per game

-13.5

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Jazz

-13.0

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

19%

Pistons win by 10+

60%

Stat comparison Current season

DETUTAH

115.4

Points scored / game

116.1

107.8

Points allowed / game

124.3

45.9 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

37.9 %

3-point %

33.9 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

74.4 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.0

Assists / game

26.8

8.0

Steals / game

5.0

7.2

Blocks / game

6.4

15.6

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 85% · UTAH 15%

ESPN BPI

DET 67% · UTAH 33%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		UTAH
4-1	Record	1-4
115.4	Points scored / game	116.1
107.8	Points allowed / game	124.3
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
W1	Current streak	L3
4-1	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.