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Jazz vs Pistons prediction NBA · Sunday, January 10

Sun, Jan 10 · 6:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

106-124

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

8% win UTAHwin DET 92%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin17.6

Projected total230

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Sunday, January 10 at 6:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 92% chance to win and projects a 106-124 score (Jazz – Pistons), about 230 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Pistons W1, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 12% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Pistons 124 – 106 Jazz, a margin of about 17.6 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+13.5

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Pistons

+17.6

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

73%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

12%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHDET

116.1

Points scored / game

115.4

124.3

Points allowed / game

107.8

45.4 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

33.9 %

3-point %

37.9 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

76.6 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

46.8

26.8

Assists / game

27.0

5.0

Steals / game

8.0

6.4

Blocks / game

7.2

17.0

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 8% · DET 92%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 22% · DET 78%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		DET
1-4	Record	4-1
116.1	Points scored / game	115.4
124.3	Points allowed / game	107.8
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
L3	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	4-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.