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Nuggets vs Rockets prediction NBA · Sunday, February 14

Sun, Feb 14 · 2:00 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · NBA TV

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

111-118

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

29% win DENwin HOU 71%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin6.9

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Sunday, February 14 at 2:00 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 71% chance to win and projects a 111-118 score (Nuggets – Rockets), about 229 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Rockets W5, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Reed Sheppard (Rockets) and Marcus Smart (Rockets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Rockets, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Rockets 118 – 111 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.9 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / DEN +2.6 per game

+4.1

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Rockets

+6.9

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

40%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Nuggets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DENHOU

119.2

Points scored / game

117.5

116.2

Points allowed / game

109.7

45.8 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

32.8 %

3-point %

40.4 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

79.6 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

44.8

26.0

Assists / game

28.2

10.0

Steals / game

10.2

4.8

Blocks / game

6.0

15.3

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 29% · HOU 71%

ESPN BPI

DEN 36% · HOU 65%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		HOU
2-2	Record	5-0
119.2	Points scored / game	117.5
116.2	Points allowed / game	109.7
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W1	Current streak	W5
2-2	Last 10 games	5-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.