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Rockets vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Friday, November 20

Fri, Nov 20 · 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · Prime Video

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

115-113

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

57% win HOUwin DEN 43%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin2.3

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Friday, November 20 at 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 57% chance to win and projects a 115-113 score (Rockets – Nuggets), about 229 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Alpha Diallo (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nuggets 113 – 115 Rockets, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / HOU +6.7 per game

-4.1

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.5

Expected marginfor Nuggets

-2.3

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Rockets win by 10+

27%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUDEN

117.5

Points scored / game

119.2

109.7

Points allowed / game

116.2

51.7 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

40.4 %

3-point %

32.8 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

84.7 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

44.5

28.2

Assists / game

26.0

10.2

Steals / game

10.0

6.0

Blocks / game

4.8

15.8

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 57% · DEN 43%

ESPN BPI

HOU 55% · DEN 45%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		DEN
5-0	Record	2-2
117.5	Points scored / game	119.2
109.7	Points allowed / game	116.2
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W5	Current streak	W1
5-0	Last 10 games	2-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.