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Suns vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Sunday, February 14

Sun, Feb 14 · 1:00 PM ETRocket Arena · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

111-118

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

28% win PHXwin CLE 72%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin7.1

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Sunday, February 14 at 1:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 72% chance to win and projects a 111-118 score (Suns – Cavaliers), about 230 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Cavaliers, but the Suns have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Cavaliers 118 – 111 Suns, a margin of about 7.1 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / PHX -1.4 per game

+4.5

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 1 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

+0.3

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+7.1

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Suns win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHXCLE

111.9

Points scored / game

119.6

113.6

Points allowed / game

116.0

45.6 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

31.9 %

3-point %

36.7 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

73.9 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

47.0

25.3

Assists / game

26.3

8.7

Steals / game

8.8

5.3

Blocks / game

7.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 28% · CLE 72%

ESPN BPI

PHX 31% · CLE 69%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		CLE
1-2	Record	3-1
111.9	Points scored / game	119.6
113.6	Points allowed / game	116.0
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
L1	Current streak	W3
1-2	Last 10 games	3-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.