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Cavaliers vs Suns prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 3

Wed, Feb 3 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

116-114

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

58% win CLEwin PHX 42%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin2.5

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Wednesday, February 3 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 58% chance to win and projects a 116-114 score (Cavaliers – Suns), about 230 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Suns L1, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Cavaliers, but the Suns have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Suns 114 – 116 Cavaliers, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / CLE +3.0 per game

-4.5

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · CLE: 1 out, 0 questionable

-0.3

Expected marginfor Suns

-2.5

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Cavaliers win by 10+

28%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEPHX

119.6

Points scored / game

111.9

116.0

Points allowed / game

113.6

46.8 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

36.7 %

3-point %

31.9 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

79.3 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

39.7

26.3

Assists / game

25.3

8.8

Steals / game

8.7

7.5

Blocks / game

5.3

17.3

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 58% · PHX 42%

ESPN BPI

CLE 59% · PHX 41%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		PHX
3-1	Record	1-2
119.6	Points scored / game	111.9
116.0	Points allowed / game	113.6
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W3	Current streak	L1
3-1	Last 10 games	1-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.