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Warriors vs Knicks prediction NBA · Saturday, February 13

Sat, Feb 13 · 8:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · ABC

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

109-118

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

23% win GSwin NY 77%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin9.1

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Saturday, February 13 at 8:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 77% chance to win and projects a 109-118 score (Warriors – Knicks), about 227 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Knicks W2, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Knicks start with a clear edge. The model projects Knicks 118 – 109 Warriors, a margin of about 9.1 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / GS -0.8 per game

+4.6

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Knicks

+9.1

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

47%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

24%

Warriors win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

GSNY

115.5

Points scored / game

114.5

116.4

Points allowed / game

110.0

45.0 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

36.9 %

3-point %

35.9 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

82.2 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

48.2

25.6

Assists / game

26.8

9.6

Steals / game

7.2

3.8

Blocks / game

4.4

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 23% · NY 77%

ESPN BPI

GS 41% · NY 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		NY
2-3	Record	2-3
115.5	Points scored / game	114.5
116.4	Points allowed / game	110.0
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
W2	Current streak	W2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.