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Knicks vs Warriors prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 6

Wed, Jan 6 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center · ESPN

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-111

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

64% win NYwin GS 36%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin4.5

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Wednesday, January 6 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 64% chance to win and projects a 116-111 score (Knicks – Warriors), about 227 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Warriors W2, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Knicks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Warriors 111 – 116 Knicks, a margin of about 4.5 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / NY +3.8 per game

-4.6

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Warriors

-4.5

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Knicks win by 10+

33%

Stat comparison Current season

NYGS

114.5

Points scored / game

115.5

110.0

Points allowed / game

116.4

42.2 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

35.9 %

3-point %

36.9 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

75.8 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

43.8

26.8

Assists / game

25.6

7.2

Steals / game

9.6

4.4

Blocks / game

3.8

14.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 64% · GS 36%

ESPN BPI

NY 53% · GS 47%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		GS
2-3	Record	2-3
114.5	Points scored / game	115.5
110.0	Points allowed / game	116.4
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W2	Current streak	W2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.