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Mavericks vs Hornets prediction NBA · Saturday, February 13

Sat, Feb 13 · 3:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · Prime Video

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

109-115

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

31% win DALwin CHA 69%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin6.2

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Saturday, February 13 at 3:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 69% chance to win and projects a 109-115 score (Mavericks – Hornets), about 224 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Hornets L1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Kon Knueppel (Hornets) and Coby White (Hornets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hornets, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Hornets 115 – 109 Mavericks, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / DAL -2.8 per game

+3.9

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Hornets

+6.2

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Mavericks win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

DALCHA

114.1

Points scored / game

111.6

117.4

Points allowed / game

110.3

49.0 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

34.6 %

3-point %

30.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

76.7 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

47.4

27.6

Assists / game

20.6

9.0

Steals / game

6.8

7.4

Blocks / game

5.2

15.6

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 31% · CHA 69%

ESPN BPI

DAL 49% · CHA 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		CHA
3-2	Record	3-2
114.1	Points scored / game	111.6
117.4	Points allowed / game	110.3
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
W2	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.