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Hornets vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 19

Tue, Jan 19 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · NBC, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

113-109

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

60% win CHAwin DAL 40%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin3.2

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Tuesday, January 19 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 60% chance to win and projects a 113-109 score (Hornets – Mavericks), about 222 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks) and Santi Aldama (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hornets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 109 – 113 Hornets, a margin of about 3.2 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / CHA +1.1 per game

-3.9

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-3.2

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

15%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Hornets win by 10+

29%

Stat comparison Current season

CHADAL

111.6

Points scored / game

114.1

110.3

Points allowed / game

117.4

41.7 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

30.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

85.2 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

44.2

20.6

Assists / game

27.6

6.8

Steals / game

9.0

5.2

Blocks / game

7.4

19.0

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 60% · DAL 40%

ESPN BPI

CHA 45% · DAL 55%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

CHA		DAL
3-2	Record	3-2
111.6	Points scored / game	114.1
110.3	Points allowed / game	117.4
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L1	Current streak	W2
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.