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Nets vs Wizards prediction NBA · Friday, February 12

Fri, Feb 12 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · DAZN (YES)

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

113-115

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

44% win BKNwin WSH 56%

FavoriteWSH

Projected margin1.8

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Friday, February 12 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Wizards a 56% chance to win and projects a 113-115 score (Nets – Wizards), about 229 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Wizards L2, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets), Tyler Bilodeau (Nets), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Wizards 115 – 113 Nets, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Wizards and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Wizards' offense (113.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nets' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / BKN -8.4 per game

+0.7

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Wizards

+1.8

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Nets win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

BKNWSH

108.0

Points scored / game

113.1

117.9

Points allowed / game

122.2

42.9 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

36.7 %

3-point %

28.5 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

76.6 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

40.0

24.0

Assists / game

25.8

10.0

Steals / game

7.4

4.0

Blocks / game

5.6

17.5

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 44% · WSH 56%

ESPN BPI

BKN 38% · WSH 62%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		WSH
0-4	Record	2-3
108.0	Points scored / game	113.1
117.9	Points allowed / game	122.2
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L4	Current streak	L2
0-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.