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Suns vs Hawks prediction NBA · Friday, February 12

Fri, Feb 12 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

112-117

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

32% win PHXwin ATL 68%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin5.9

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Friday, February 12 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 68% chance to win and projects a 112-117 score (Suns – Hawks), about 229 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Hawks L3, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hawks 117 – 112 Suns, a margin of about 5.9 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / PHX -1.4 per game

+4.1

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Hawks

+5.9

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

37%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Suns win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXATL

111.9

Points scored / game

119.0

113.6

Points allowed / game

115.8

45.6 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

31.9 %

3-point %

34.8 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

73.9 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

41.4

25.3

Assists / game

32.2

8.7

Steals / game

10.2

5.3

Blocks / game

3.6

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 32% · ATL 68%

ESPN BPI

PHX 33% · ATL 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		ATL
1-2	Record	2-3
111.9	Points scored / game	119.0
113.6	Points allowed / game	115.8
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
L1	Current streak	L3
1-2	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.