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Hawks vs Suns prediction NBA · Monday, December 14

Mon, Dec 14 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

115-114

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

54% win ATLwin PHX 46%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin1.3

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Monday, December 14 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 54% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Hawks – Suns), about 229 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Suns L1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Suns 114 – 115 Hawks, a margin of about 1.3 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / ATL +2.7 per game

-4.1

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Suns

-1.3

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hawks win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLPHX

119.0

Points scored / game

111.9

115.8

Points allowed / game

113.6

46.9 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

34.8 %

3-point %

31.9 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

72.8 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

39.7

32.2

Assists / game

25.3

10.2

Steals / game

8.7

3.6

Blocks / game

5.3

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 54% · PHX 46%

ESPN BPI

ATL 57% · PHX 43%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		PHX
2-3	Record	1-2
119.0	Points scored / game	111.9
115.8	Points allowed / game	113.6
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L3	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.