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Bulls vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Thursday, February 11

Thu, Feb 11 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

112-123

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

19% win CHIwin DEN 81%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin11.0

Projected total235

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Thursday, February 11 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 81% chance to win and projects a 112-123 score (Bulls – Nuggets), about 235 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets start with a clear edge. The model projects Nuggets 123 – 112 Bulls, a margin of about 11.0 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / CHI -7.2 per game

+9.8

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

-1.1

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+11.0

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

53%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Bulls win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHIDEN

115.6

Points scored / game

119.2

124.1

Points allowed / game

116.2

42.1 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

27.6 %

3-point %

32.8 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

78.6 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

44.5

24.4

Assists / game

26.0

9.0

Steals / game

10.0

4.8

Blocks / game

4.8

17.8

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 19% · DEN 81%

ESPN BPI

CHI 20% · DEN 80%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		DEN
1-4	Record	2-2
115.6	Points scored / game	119.2
124.1	Points allowed / game	116.2
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L3	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	2-2
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.