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Nuggets vs Bulls prediction NBA · Sunday, November 22

Sun, Nov 22 · 7:00 PM ETUnited Center

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

121-114

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

69% win DENwin CHI 31%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin6.4

Projected total235

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Sunday, November 22 at 7:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 69% chance to win and projects a 121-114 score (Nuggets – Bulls), about 235 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Bulls L3, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bulls 114 – 121 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.4 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / DEN +2.6 per game

-9.8

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.1

Expected marginfor Bulls

-6.4

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Nuggets win by 10+

39%

Stat comparison Current season

DENCHI

119.2

Points scored / game

115.6

116.2

Points allowed / game

124.1

45.8 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

32.8 %

3-point %

27.6 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

79.6 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

44.8

26.0

Assists / game

24.4

10.0

Steals / game

9.0

4.8

Blocks / game

4.8

15.3

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 69% · CHI 31%

ESPN BPI

DEN 73% · CHI 27%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		CHI
2-2	Record	1-4
119.2	Points scored / game	115.6
116.2	Points allowed / game	124.1
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
W1	Current streak	L3
2-2	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.