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Kings vs Rockets prediction NBA · Thursday, February 11

Thu, Feb 11 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston)

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

104-123

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

6% win SACwin HOU 94%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin19.7

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Thursday, February 11 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 94% chance to win and projects a 104-123 score (Kings – Rockets), about 227 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Rockets W5, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 10% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Reed Sheppard (Rockets) and Marcus Smart (Rockets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Rockets 123 – 104 Kings, a margin of about 19.7 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / SAC -10.1 per game

+16.8

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Rockets

+19.7

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

78%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

10%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACHOU

110.2

Points scored / game

117.5

122.1

Points allowed / game

109.7

44.5 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

30.0 %

3-point %

40.4 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

73.1 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

44.8

22.8

Assists / game

28.2

6.8

Steals / game

10.2

2.5

Blocks / game

6.0

14.3

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 6% · HOU 94%

ESPN BPI

SAC 9% · HOU 91%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		HOU
0-4	Record	5-0
110.2	Points scored / game	117.5
122.1	Points allowed / game	109.7
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L4	Current streak	W5
0-4	Last 10 games	5-0
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.