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Jazz vs Pacers prediction NBA · Thursday, February 11

Thu, Feb 11 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

115-117

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

45% win UTAHwin IND 55%

FavoriteIND

Projected margin1.5

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Thursday, February 11 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pacers a 55% chance to win and projects a 115-117 score (Jazz – Pacers), about 232 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Pacers L2, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers) and Ben Sheppard (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Pacers 117 – 115 Jazz, a margin of about 1.5 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pacers' defense allows clearly fewer points (118.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+2.3

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backPacers played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-1.4

Expected marginfor Pacers

+1.5

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Jazz win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHIND

116.1

Points scored / game

113.2

124.3

Points allowed / game

118.8

45.4 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

33.9 %

3-point %

31.2 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

76.6 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

44.0

26.8

Assists / game

29.4

5.0

Steals / game

6.4

Blocks / game

4.8

17.0

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 45% · IND 55%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 36% · IND 65%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		IND
1-4	Record	2-3
116.1	Points scored / game	113.2
124.3	Points allowed / game	118.8
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L3	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.