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Pacers vs Jazz prediction NBA · Saturday, December 26

Sat, Dec 26 · 5:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-117

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

45% win INDwin UTAH 55%

FavoriteUTAH

Projected margin1.5

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Saturday, December 26 at 5:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Jazz a 55% chance to win and projects a 116-117 score (Pacers – Jazz), about 233 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Jazz L3, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Jazz 117 – 116 Pacers, a margin of about 1.5 points in favor of the Jazz and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pacers' defense allows clearly fewer points (118.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / IND -4.7 per game

-2.3

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+1.4

Expected marginfor Jazz

+1.5

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pacers win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

INDUTAH

113.2

Points scored / game

116.1

118.8

Points allowed / game

124.3

47.1 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

31.2 %

3-point %

33.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

72.7 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

46.8

29.4

Assists / game

26.8

6.4

Steals / game

5.0

4.8

Blocks / game

6.4

14.8

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 45% · UTAH 55%

ESPN BPI

IND 57% · UTAH 43%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

IND		UTAH
2-3	Record	1-4
113.2	Points scored / game	116.1
118.8	Points allowed / game	124.3
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
L2	Current streak	L3
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.