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Pistons vs Suns prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 10

Wed, Feb 10 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

113-109

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

63% win DETwin PHX 37%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin4.0

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Wednesday, February 10 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 63% chance to win and projects a 113-109 score (Pistons – Suns), about 222 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Suns L1, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Pistons, but the Suns have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Suns 109 – 113 Pistons, a margin of about 4.0 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / DET +6.5 per game

-7.9

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

Back-to-backPistons played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Suns

-4.0

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

13%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Pistons win by 10+

32%

Stat comparison Current season

DETPHX

115.4

Points scored / game

111.9

107.8

Points allowed / game

113.6

45.9 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

37.9 %

3-point %

31.9 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

74.4 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

39.7

27.0

Assists / game

25.3

8.0

Steals / game

8.7

7.2

Blocks / game

5.3

15.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 63% · PHX 37%

ESPN BPI

DET 65% · PHX 35%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		PHX
4-1	Record	1-2
115.4	Points scored / game	111.9
107.8	Points allowed / game	113.6
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W1	Current streak	L1
4-1	Last 10 games	1-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.