Suns vs Pistons prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 16
At a glance
The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Wednesday, December 16 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 79% chance to win and projects a 107-117 score (Suns – Pistons), about 223 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Pistons W1, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Pistons 117 – 107 Suns, a margin of about 10.2 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pistons' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PHXDET
Players to watch
Suns
Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / gameDevin BookerG · #155.3assists
Khaman MaluachC · #107.3reboundsPistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / gameCade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6reboundsRecent form
PHX
123-103L
119-116L
124-83W
131-122L
125-114DET
121-113W
128-111W
106-93L
111-97W
97-89
PHX
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| PHX | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 111.9 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 113.6 | Points allowed / game | 107.8 |
| -1.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.5 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 1-2 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 45-37 (+1.5) | Last season | 60-22 (+8.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Suns
Injury report Pistons
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.