Warriors vs Celtics prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 10
At a glance
The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Wednesday, February 10 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 83% chance to win and projects a 107-118 score (Warriors – Celtics), about 225 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Celtics W3, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics and the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Celtics 118 – 107 Warriors, a margin of about 11.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics and the Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSBOS
Players to watch
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsCeltics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / gameJayson TatumF · #08.0assistsJayson TatumF · #06.2reboundsRecent form
GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114BOS
125-120 OTL
121-113W
107-103W
134-99W
125-124 OT
BOS
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| GS | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.5 | Points scored / game | 116.1 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 108.3 |
| -0.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.6 |
| W2 | Current streak | W3 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-2 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 37-45 (-0.6) | Last season | 56-26 (+7.7) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Celtics
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.