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Celtics vs Warriors prediction NBA · Sunday, November 22

Sun, Nov 22 · 8:30 PM ETChase Center

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

115-110

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

67% win BOSwin GS 33%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin5.6

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Sunday, November 22 at 8:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 67% chance to win and projects a 115-110 score (Celtics – Warriors), about 225 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Warriors W2, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Celtics, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 110 – 115 Celtics, a margin of about 5.6 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / BOS +6.6 per game

-7.4

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Warriors

-5.6

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Celtics win by 10+

36%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSGS

116.1

Points scored / game

115.5

108.3

Points allowed / game

116.4

46.5 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

38.6 %

3-point %

36.9 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

76.0 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

43.8

27.8

Assists / game

25.6

9.0

Steals / game

9.6

3.8

Blocks / game

3.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 67% · GS 33%

ESPN BPI

BOS 65% · GS 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		GS
3-1	Record	2-3
116.1	Points scored / game	115.5
108.3	Points allowed / game	116.4
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W3	Current streak	W2
3-1	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.