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Kings vs Bucks prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 9

Tue, Feb 9 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

110-118

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

26% win SACwin MIL 74%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin8.0

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Tuesday, February 9 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 74% chance to win and projects a 110-118 score (Kings – Bucks), about 228 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Bucks L1, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Bucks start with a clear edge. The model projects Bucks 118 – 110 Kings, a margin of about 8.0 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (119.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / SAC -10.1 per game

+3.7

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBucks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Bucks

+8.0

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

44%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACMIL

110.2

Points scored / game

111.4

122.1

Points allowed / game

119.0

44.5 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

30.0 %

3-point %

34.0 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

73.1 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

49.8

22.8

Assists / game

24.6

6.8

Steals / game

5.8

2.5

Blocks / game

4.0

14.3

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 26% · MIL 74%

ESPN BPI

SAC 35% · MIL 65%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		MIL
0-4	Record	1-4
110.2	Points scored / game	111.4
122.1	Points allowed / game	119.0
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L4	Current streak	L1
0-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.