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Bucks vs Kings prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 20

Wed, Jan 20 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

118-111

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

70% win MILwin SAC 30%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin6.6

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Wednesday, January 20 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 70% chance to win and projects a 118-111 score (Bucks – Kings), about 228 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Kings L4, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Kings played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Bucks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Kings 111 – 118 Bucks, a margin of about 6.6 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (119.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / MIL -6.4 per game

-3.7

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

Back-to-backKings played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-3.6

Expected marginfor Kings

-6.6

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Bucks win by 10+

39%

Stat comparison Current season

MILSAC

111.4

Points scored / game

110.2

119.0

Points allowed / game

122.1

44.9 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

34.0 %

3-point %

30.0 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

71.6 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

41.5

24.6

Assists / game

22.8

5.8

Steals / game

6.8

4.0

Blocks / game

2.5

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 70% · SAC 30%

ESPN BPI

MIL 60% · SAC 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		SAC
1-4	Record	0-4
111.4	Points scored / game	110.2
119.0	Points allowed / game	122.1
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L1	Current streak	L4
1-4	Last 10 games	0-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.