Login
Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Heat vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, February 8

Mon, Feb 8 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · NBCSN
Miami Heat
Miami Heat
1-4 · away
Projected score
116-118
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · home
42% win MIAwin ATL 58%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin2.5
Projected total234
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Monday, February 8 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 58% chance to win and projects a 116-118 score (Heat – Hawks), about 234 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Hawks L3, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Hawks 118 – 116 Heat, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / MIA -0.6 per game
+3.3
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
Back-to-backHawks played yesterday
-1.6
InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable
-1.5
Expected marginfor Hawks
+2.5

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
27%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Heat win by 10+
16%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAATL
118.6
Points scored / game
119.0
119.2
Points allowed / game
115.8
45.3 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
31.7 %
3-point %
34.8 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
71.7 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
42.8
Rebounds / game
41.4
27.0
Assists / game
32.2
8.4
Steals / game
10.2
5.4
Blocks / game
3.6
14.2
Turnovers / game
14.0

Players to watch

Heat
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIA
LMIN131-106LDET128-111LCHA115-110LDAL113-109WATL129-117
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117

Head-to-head

MIA lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 28MIA129 - 117ATLDec 1ATLupcomingMIAJan 23ATLupcomingMIAFeb 8MIAthis gameATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIA 42% · ATL 58%
ESPN BPI
MIA 41% · ATL 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIAATL
1-4Record2-3
118.6Points scored / game119.0
119.2Points allowed / game115.8
-0.6Adjusted margin / game+2.7
W1Current streakL3
1-4Last 10 games2-3
1-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
43-39 (+2.3)Last season46-36 (+2.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Miami Heat Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.