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Hawks vs Heat prediction NBA · Saturday, January 23

Sat, Jan 23 · 8:00 PM ETKaseya Center

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-118

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

43% win ATLwin MIA 57%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin2.1

Projected total234

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Saturday, January 23 at 8:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 57% chance to win and projects a 116-118 score (Hawks – Heat), about 234 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Heat W1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Heat 118 – 116 Hawks, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / ATL +2.7 per game

-3.3

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHawks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.5

Expected marginfor Heat

+2.1

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hawks win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLMIA

119.0

Points scored / game

118.6

115.8

Points allowed / game

119.2

46.9 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

34.8 %

3-point %

31.7 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

72.8 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

42.8

32.2

Assists / game

27.0

10.2

Steals / game

8.4

3.6

Blocks / game

5.4

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

MIA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 43% · MIA 57%

ESPN BPI

ATL 47% · MIA 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		MIA
2-3	Record	1-4
119.0	Points scored / game	118.6
115.8	Points allowed / game	119.2
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
L3	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.