Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Warriors vs Pistons prediction NBA · Sunday, February 7

Sun, Feb 7 · 3:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · NBA TV

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

107-119

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

18% win GSwin DET 82%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin11.4

Projected total226

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Sunday, February 7 at 3:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 82% chance to win and projects a 107-119 score (Warriors – Pistons), about 226 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Pistons W1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Pistons 119 – 107 Warriors, a margin of about 11.4 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / GS -0.8 per game

+7.3

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Pistons

+11.4

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

54%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Warriors win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

GSDET

115.5

Points scored / game

115.4

116.4

Points allowed / game

107.8

45.0 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

36.9 %

3-point %

37.9 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

82.2 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

46.8

25.6

Assists / game

27.0

9.6

Steals / game

8.0

3.8

Blocks / game

7.2

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 18% · DET 82%

ESPN BPI

GS 37% · DET 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		DET
2-3	Record	4-1
115.5	Points scored / game	115.4
116.4	Points allowed / game	107.8
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
2-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.