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Pistons vs Warriors prediction NBA · Thursday, January 7

Thu, Jan 7 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

116-108

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

75% win DETwin GS 25%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin8.4

Projected total224

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Thursday, January 7 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 75% chance to win and projects a 116-108 score (Pistons – Warriors), about 224 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Warriors W2, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Warriors 108 – 116 Pistons, a margin of about 8.4 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / DET +6.5 per game

-7.3

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWarriors played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Warriors

-8.4

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Pistons win by 10+

45%

Stat comparison Current season

DETGS

115.4

Points scored / game

115.5

107.8

Points allowed / game

116.4

45.9 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

37.9 %

3-point %

36.9 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

74.4 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

43.8

27.0

Assists / game

25.6

8.0

Steals / game

9.6

7.2

Blocks / game

3.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 75% · GS 25%

ESPN BPI

DET 60% · GS 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		GS
4-1	Record	2-3
115.4	Points scored / game	115.5
107.8	Points allowed / game	116.4
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W1	Current streak	W2
4-1	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.