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Nuggets vs Hawks prediction NBA · Sunday, February 7

Sun, Feb 7 · 3:00 PM ETState Farm Arena

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

114-119

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

37% win DENwin ATL 63%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin4.2

Projected total233

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Sunday, February 7 at 3:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 63% chance to win and projects a 114-119 score (Nuggets – Hawks), about 233 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Hawks L3, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hawks, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Hawks 119 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / DEN +2.6 per game

+0.1

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Hawks

+4.2

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

32%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Nuggets win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

DENATL

119.2

Points scored / game

119.0

116.2

Points allowed / game

115.8

45.8 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

32.8 %

3-point %

34.8 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

79.6 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

41.4

26.0

Assists / game

32.2

10.0

Steals / game

10.2

4.8

Blocks / game

3.6

15.3

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 37% · ATL 63%

ESPN BPI

DEN 46% · ATL 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		ATL
2-2	Record	2-3
119.2	Points scored / game	119.0
116.2	Points allowed / game	115.8
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W1	Current streak	L3
2-2	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.