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Hawks vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Thursday, December 17

Thu, Dec 17 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-117

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

49% win ATLwin DEN 51%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin0.4

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Thursday, December 17 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 51% chance to win and projects a 116-117 score (Hawks – Nuggets), about 233 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nuggets 117 – 116 Hawks, a margin of about 0.4 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / ATL +2.7 per game

-0.1

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+0.4

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hawks win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLDEN

119.0

Points scored / game

119.2

115.8

Points allowed / game

116.2

46.9 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

34.8 %

3-point %

32.8 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

72.8 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

44.5

32.2

Assists / game

26.0

10.2

Steals / game

10.0

3.6

Blocks / game

4.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 49% · DEN 51%

ESPN BPI

ATL 46% · DEN 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		DEN
2-3	Record	2-2
119.0	Points scored / game	119.2
115.8	Points allowed / game	116.2
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L3	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	2-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.