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Suns vs Kings prediction NBA · Saturday, February 6

Sat, Feb 6 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

116-109

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

72% win PHXwin SAC 28%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin7.2

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Saturday, February 6 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 72% chance to win and projects a 116-109 score (Suns – Kings), about 225 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Kings L4, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Kings 109 – 116 Suns, a margin of about 7.2 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / PHX -1.4 per game

-8.7

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSuns played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.4

Expected marginfor Kings

-7.2

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Suns win by 10+

41%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXSAC

111.9

Points scored / game

110.2

113.6

Points allowed / game

122.1

45.6 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

31.9 %

3-point %

30.0 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

73.9 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

41.5

25.3

Assists / game

22.8

8.7

Steals / game

6.8

5.3

Blocks / game

2.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 72% · SAC 28%

ESPN BPI

PHX 71% · SAC 29%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		SAC
1-2	Record	0-4
111.9	Points scored / game	110.2
113.6	Points allowed / game	122.1
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L1	Current streak	L4
1-2	Last 10 games	0-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.