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Kings vs Suns prediction NBA · Saturday, January 2

Sat, Jan 2 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

107-120

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

14% win SACwin PHX 86%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin13.4

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Saturday, January 2 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 86% chance to win and projects a 107-120 score (Kings – Suns), about 227 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Suns L1, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 18% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Suns dominate this matchup. The model projects Suns 120 – 107 Kings, a margin of about 13.4 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / SAC -10.1 per game

+8.7

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+2.4

Expected marginfor Suns

+13.4

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

61%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

18%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACPHX

110.2

Points scored / game

111.9

122.1

Points allowed / game

113.6

44.5 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

30.0 %

3-point %

31.9 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

73.1 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

39.7

22.8

Assists / game

25.3

6.8

Steals / game

8.7

2.5

Blocks / game

5.3

14.3

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 14% · PHX 86%

ESPN BPI

SAC 21% · PHX 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		PHX
0-4	Record	1-2
110.2	Points scored / game	111.9
122.1	Points allowed / game	113.6
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L4	Current streak	L1
0-4	Last 10 games	1-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.