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Bucks vs Raptors prediction NBA · Saturday, February 6

Sat, Feb 6 · 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

108-119

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

17% win MILwin TOR 83%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin11.9

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Saturday, February 6 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 83% chance to win and projects a 108-119 score (Bucks – Raptors), about 227 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Raptors W1, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Raptors 119 – 108 Bucks, a margin of about 11.9 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / MIL -6.4 per game

+11.4

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Raptors

+11.9

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

56%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Bucks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MILTOR

111.4

Points scored / game

115.4

119.0

Points allowed / game

109.5

44.9 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

34.0 %

3-point %

30.4 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

71.6 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

45.8

24.6

Assists / game

27.3

5.8

Steals / game

14.3

4.0

Blocks / game

5.5

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 17% · TOR 83%

ESPN BPI

MIL 15% · TOR 85%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		TOR
1-4	Record	3-1
111.4	Points scored / game	115.4
119.0	Points allowed / game	109.5
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
L1	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	3-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.