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Raptors vs Bucks prediction NBA · Friday, November 6

Fri, Nov 6 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

117-110

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

72% win TORwin MIL 28%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin7.3

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Friday, November 6 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 72% chance to win and projects a 117-110 score (Raptors – Bucks), about 227 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Bucks L1, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Raptors start with a clear edge. The model projects Bucks 110 – 117 Raptors, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / TOR +5.0 per game

-11.4

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Bucks

-7.3

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Raptors win by 10+

41%

Stat comparison Current season

TORMIL

115.4

Points scored / game

111.4

109.5

Points allowed / game

119.0

44.2 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

30.4 %

3-point %

34.0 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

79.0 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

49.8

27.3

Assists / game

24.6

14.3

Steals / game

5.8

5.5

Blocks / game

4.0

14.0

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 72% · MIL 28%

ESPN BPI

TOR 64% · MIL 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

TOR		MIL
3-1	Record	1-4
115.4	Points scored / game	111.4
109.5	Points allowed / game	119.0
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
W1	Current streak	L1
3-1	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.