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Magic vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Saturday, February 6

Sat, Feb 6 · 7:30 PM ETRocket Arena

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

110-121

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

19% win ORLwin CLE 81%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin11.2

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Saturday, February 6 at 7:30 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 81% chance to win and projects a 110-121 score (Magic – Cavaliers), about 231 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Cavaliers start with a clear edge. The model projects Cavaliers 121 – 110 Magic, a margin of about 11.2 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -2.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / ORL -2.3 per game

+5.3

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 1 out, 0 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+11.2

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

54%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Magic win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

ORLCLE

113.6

Points scored / game

119.6

116.2

Points allowed / game

116.0

44.2 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

31.4 %

3-point %

36.7 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

75.0 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

47.0

26.0

Assists / game

26.3

7.8

Steals / game

8.8

4.5

Blocks / game

7.5

17.8

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 19% · CLE 81%

ESPN BPI

ORL 33% · CLE 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		CLE
1-3	Record	3-1
113.6	Points scored / game	119.6
116.2	Points allowed / game	116.0
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
L1	Current streak	W3
1-3	Last 10 games	3-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.