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Cavaliers vs Magic prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 16

Wed, Dec 16 · 7:00 PM ETKia Center · DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

117-112

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

66% win CLEwin ORL 34%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin5.0

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Wednesday, December 16 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 66% chance to win and projects a 117-112 score (Cavaliers – Magic), about 229 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Magic L1, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic) and Izaiyah Nelson (Magic). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Cavaliers, but the Magic have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Magic 112 – 117 Cavaliers, a margin of about 5.0 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.3 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / CLE +3.0 per game

-5.3

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCavaliers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · CLE: 1 out, 0 questionable

-3.6

Expected marginfor Magic

-5.0

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Cavaliers win by 10+

34%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEORL

119.6

Points scored / game

113.6

116.0

Points allowed / game

116.2

46.8 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

36.7 %

3-point %

31.4 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

79.3 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

41.3

26.3

Assists / game

26.0

8.8

Steals / game

7.8

7.5

Blocks / game

4.5

17.3

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 66% · ORL 34%

ESPN BPI

CLE 55% · ORL 45%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		ORL
3-1	Record	1-3
119.6	Points scored / game	113.6
116.0	Points allowed / game	116.2
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
W3	Current streak	L1
3-1	Last 10 games	1-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.