Pacers vs Thunder prediction NBA · Friday, February 5
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Friday, February 5 at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 85% chance to win and projects a 105-118 score (Pacers – Thunder), about 222 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Thunder L1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Thunder played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Jalen Williams (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 118 – 105 Pacers, a margin of about 13.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
INDOKC
Players to watch
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
IND
123-120L
121-105W
136-109L
110-102L
114-109OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L120-96
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| IND | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 113.2 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 118.8 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| -4.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| L2 | Current streak | L1 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 19-63 (-8.0) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Pacers
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.