Thunder vs Pacers prediction NBA · Monday, November 23
At a glance
The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Monday, November 23 at 7:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 79% chance to win and projects a 116-106 score (Thunder – Pacers), about 222 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Pacers L2, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers and the Thunder played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Ivica Zubac (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Pacers 106 – 116 Thunder, a margin of about 10.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers and the Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).
- The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCIND
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsPacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96IND
123-120L121-105W
136-109L
110-102L
114-109
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 113.2 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 118.8 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.7 |
| L1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 19-63 (-8.0) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Pacers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.