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Rockets vs Suns prediction NBA · Friday, February 5

Fri, Feb 5 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

114-110

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

63% win HOUwin PHX 37%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin4.0

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Friday, February 5 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 63% chance to win and projects a 114-110 score (Rockets – Suns), about 225 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Suns L1, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Rockets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 110 – 114 Rockets, a margin of about 4.0 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / HOU +6.7 per game

-8.1

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Suns

-4.0

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

13%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Rockets win by 10+

32%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUPHX

117.5

Points scored / game

111.9

109.7

Points allowed / game

113.6

51.7 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

40.4 %

3-point %

31.9 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

84.7 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

39.7

28.2

Assists / game

25.3

10.2

Steals / game

8.7

6.0

Blocks / game

5.3

15.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 63% · PHX 37%

ESPN BPI

HOU 67% · PHX 33%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		PHX
5-0	Record	1-2
117.5	Points scored / game	111.9
109.7	Points allowed / game	113.6
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W5	Current streak	L1
5-0	Last 10 games	1-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.