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Suns vs Rockets prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 25

Wed, Nov 25 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

108-117

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

25% win PHXwin HOU 75%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin8.6

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Wednesday, November 25 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 75% chance to win and projects a 108-117 score (Suns – Rockets), about 225 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Rockets W5, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Rockets 117 – 108 Suns, a margin of about 8.6 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / PHX -1.4 per game

+8.1

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Rockets

+8.6

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

46%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Suns win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHXHOU

111.9

Points scored / game

117.5

113.6

Points allowed / game

109.7

45.6 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

31.9 %

3-point %

40.4 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

73.9 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

44.8

25.3

Assists / game

28.2

8.7

Steals / game

10.2

5.3

Blocks / game

6.0

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 25% · HOU 75%

ESPN BPI

PHX 25% · HOU 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		HOU
1-2	Record	5-0
111.9	Points scored / game	117.5
113.6	Points allowed / game	109.7
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L1	Current streak	W5
1-2	Last 10 games	5-0
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.