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Clippers vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Friday, February 5

Fri, Feb 5 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · ClipperVision

LA Clippers

1-3 · away

Projected score

110-114

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

38% win LACwin DEN 62%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin3.8

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Friday, February 5 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 62% chance to win and projects a 110-114 score (Clippers – Nuggets), about 225 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers), Jordan Miller (Clippers) and Cameron Johnson (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Nuggets, but the Clippers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nuggets 114 – 110 Clippers, a margin of about 3.8 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / LAC +0.4 per game

+2.2

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNuggets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · LAC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+3.8

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

31%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Clippers win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

LACDEN

112.0

Points scored / game

119.2

111.5

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.9 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

39.0 %

3-point %

32.8 %

35.3

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

78.6 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

40.8

Rebounds / game

44.5

25.0

Assists / game

26.0

12.5

Steals / game

10.0

4.5

Blocks / game

4.8

23.0

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAC 38% · DEN 62%

ESPN BPI

LAC 27% · DEN 73%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAC		DEN
1-3	Record	2-2
112.0	Points scored / game	119.2
111.5	Points allowed / game	116.2
+0.4	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L3	Current streak	W1
1-3	Last 10 games	2-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
42-40 (+1.1)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.