Nuggets vs Clippers prediction NBA · Monday, December 21
At a glance
The LA Clippers (1-3) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Monday, December 21 at 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 58% chance to win and projects a 114-111 score (Nuggets – Clippers), about 225 total points. This season, the Clippers are 1-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Clippers and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Clippers L3, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Clippers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers) and Max Strus (Clippers)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Clippers 111 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Clippers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENLAC
Players to watch
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159.0assistsNikola JokicC · #1510.5reboundsClippers
Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / gameDarius GarlandG · #106.5assists
Rui HachimuraF · #286.0reboundsRecent form
DEN
121-106L
96-84W
141-135 OTL
134-114W104-91LAC
122-110W
121-96L125-117L108-101L103-87Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DEN | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 119.2 | Points scored / game | 112.0 |
| 116.2 | Points allowed / game | 111.5 |
| +2.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +0.4 |
| W1 | Current streak | L3 |
| 2-2 | Last 10 games | 1-3 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 54-28 (+5.2) | Last season | 42-40 (+1.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Clippers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.