Thunder vs Bulls prediction NBA · Thursday, February 4
At a glance
The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Thursday, February 4 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 80% chance to win and projects a 119-109 score (Thunder – Bulls), about 228 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Bulls L3, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Patrick Williams (Bulls)…. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Bulls 109 – 119 Thunder, a margin of about 10.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).
- The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCCHI
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsBulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96CHI
135-92W
132-125L
124-120L
134-99L
133-127
CHI
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 115.6 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 124.1 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -7.2 |
| L1 | Current streak | L3 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 1-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 31-51 (-5.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Bulls
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.