Bulls vs Thunder prediction NBA · Sunday, January 31
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Sunday, January 31 at 6:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 86% chance to win and projects a 107-120 score (Bulls – Thunder), about 227 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Thunder L1, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 18% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Thunder played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder) and Nikola Topic (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 120 – 107 Bulls, a margin of about 13.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CHIOKC
Players to watch
Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
CHI
135-92W
132-125L
124-120L
134-99L
133-127OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96
CHI
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CHI | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 115.6 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 124.1 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| -7.2 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| L3 | Current streak | L1 |
| 1-4 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 1-2 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 31-51 (-5.2) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Bulls
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.