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76ers vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 3

Wed, Feb 3 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

112-116

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

38% win PHIwin MEM 62%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin3.7

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Wednesday, February 3 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 62% chance to win and projects a 112-116 score (76ers – Grizzlies), about 229 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Grizzlies 116 – 112 76ers, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / PHI +0.7 per game

-2.5

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+4.0

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+3.7

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

31%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

76ers win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIMEM

114.4

Points scored / game

115.2

113.5

Points allowed / game

117.3

42.8 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

32.6 %

3-point %

39.1 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

77.5 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

50.0

24.6

Assists / game

25.0

9.8

Steals / game

6.3

5.6

Blocks / game

6.3

12.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 38% · MEM 62%

ESPN BPI

PHI 66% · MEM 34%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

PHI		MEM
4-1	Record	4-0
114.4	Points scored / game	115.2
113.5	Points allowed / game	117.3
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W1	Current streak	W4
4-1	Last 10 games	4-0
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.